Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Combat game?

Combat + Ninja

Of 60 developers who shipped a Ninja Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $4.9M, ×7854 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 83 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 83 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $300 → $6.1k → $5.8k → $2.5k → $12k → $359 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,826)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 184
Announced 83
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Hack and Slash
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro, Violent
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 44,557 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $4.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Overgrowth older $19.99 6,202 86% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,719,339) Wolfire Games
Aragami 2 older $34.99 3,472 76% 104k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,558) Lince Works
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
Neptunia x SENRAN KAGURA: Ninja Wars older $49.99 999 82% 30k $1.5M (exactly $1,498,200) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, Tamsoft
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
The Spirit of the Samurai $19.99 413 59% 12k $248k (exactly $247,676) Digital Mind Games
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
G.I. Joe: Wrath of Cobra $24.99 121 56% 3.6k $91k (exactly $90,714) indie.io
Mexican Ninja $16.99 76 89% 2.3k $39k (exactly $38,737) Madbricks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.