Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Combat game?

Combat + Thriller

Of 94 developers who shipped a Thriller Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $76k, ×122 the market median. Revenue is up 190% on the market; 153 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 153 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $238 → $1.9k → $1.1k → $449 → $898 → $1.4k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $76,381)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 199
Announced 153
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Survival Horror
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 4,869 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $840, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $76k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Space™ 3 older $19.99 12,238 72% 367k $7.3M (exactly $7,339,129) Visceral Games
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One older $44.99 4,189 77% 126k $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) Frogwares
Alone in the Dark older $39.99 3,325 77% 100k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,002) Pieces Interactive
The Thing: Remastered $29.99 1,203 89% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks
A.I.L.A $29.99 889 81% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) Pulsatrix Studios
Burnhouse Lane older $14.99 1,039 94% 31k $467k (exactly $467,238) Harvester Games
Clawed $19.99 729 52% 22k $437k (exactly $437,181) Flatrock Games
They Killed Your Cat $6.99 883 75% 26k $185k (exactly $185,165) Vekaria
Death Relives $12.99 196 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $76,381) Nyctophile Studios
Malum older $4.99 400 72% 12k $60k (exactly $59,880) MalumGames
Bleak Haven $14.99 131 41% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Hitori De Productions
Miami Paradise 2 $14.99 131 94% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Crabmeat $7.99 181 86% 5.4k $43k (exactly $43,386) Nicholas McDonnell, Mitchell Pasmans
Temple of the Green Moon $14.99 94 75% 2.8k $42k (exactly $42,272) OLKON GAMES
Better Days $2.99 432 70% 13k $39k (exactly $38,750) 全自动花花

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.