Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Combat game?

Combat + LGBTQ+

Of 52 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $58M, ×93143 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 90 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 90 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $210k → $2.8k → $64k → $17k → $10k → $11k (still earning) → $7.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Median $16k (exactly $15,518)
Top 25% $113k (exactly $113,343)
Top 5% $58M (exactly $58,493,849)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 130
Announced 90
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 223,386 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.5k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $58M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.5k. 6 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + ProgrammingPoor odds10 devs · median $14k · 19 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
Dragon Age™ Inquisition older $39.99 19,162 75% 575k $23M (exactly $22,988,651) BioWare
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown older $29.99 6,754 84% 203k $6.1M (exactly $6,076,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
Carnal Instinct · EA older $29.99 5,407 82% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,864,678) Team Carnal Instinct
Echoes of the End: Enhanced Edition $39.99 1,484 78% 45k $1.8M (exactly $1,780,355) Myrkur Games
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
LEGO® Horizon Adventures™ $39.99 403 60% 12k $483k (exactly $483,479) Guerrilla Games, Studio Gobo
Don't Stop, Girlypop! $19.99 518 83% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) Funny Fintan Softworks
Possessor(s) $9.99 718 75% 22k $215k (exactly $215,185) Heart Machine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.