Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Combat game?

Combat + Military

Of 354 developers who shipped a Military Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 630 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $860k, ×1375 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 630 games are announced against 202 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 630 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 354
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.1k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $807 → $1.2k → $989 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 354
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $864k (exactly $863,654)
Developers, 2 yr 354
Released games 1,066
Announced 630
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Tactical, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 392,522 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $860k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 194 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 630 games are announced against 202 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
Aliens: Fireteam Elite 2 $49.99 3,515 61% 105k $5.3M (exactly $5,271,446) Cold Iron Studios
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
Angels Fall First $17.99 3,835 81% 115k $2.1M (exactly $2,069,749) Strangely Interactive Ltd
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Alien: Rogue Incursion VR $39.99 1,340 70% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,607,598) Survios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.