Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building game?

Base Building

Of 1,508 developers who shipped a Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,476 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3511 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 3,476 games are announced against 892 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 3,476 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,508
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $4.8k → $6.3k → $5.3k → $8.4k → $4.8k → $6.0k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,508
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,100)
Top 25% $82k (exactly $81,873)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 1,508
Released games 3,860
Announced 3,476
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,678,008 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 720 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,476 games are announced against 892 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Base Building

44 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Base Building + Dwarves Fair $13k 12 devs
  2. Base Building + Trains Poor odds $113k 19 devs
  3. Base Building + Underground Poor odds $65k 12 devs
  4. Base Building + Mars Poor odds $58k 15 devs
  5. Base Building + Historical Poor odds $58k 81 devs
  6. Base Building + Science Poor odds $52k 36 devs
  7. Base Building + Romance Poor odds $47k 10 devs
  8. Base Building + Underwater Poor odds $41k 19 devs
  9. Base Building + Snow Poor odds $33k 12 devs
  10. Base Building + Alternate History Poor odds $31k 27 devs
  11. Base Building + Female Protagonist Poor odds $31k 26 devs
  12. Base Building + Modern Poor odds $29k 24 devs
  13. Base Building + Mythology Poor odds $19k 33 devs
  14. Base Building + Dragons Poor odds $19k 14 devs
  15. Base Building + Pirates Poor odds $17k 8 devs
  16. Base Building + Dinosaurs Poor odds $16k 13 devs
  17. Base Building + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $13k 176 devs
  18. Base Building + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $11k 39 devs
  19. Base Building + Demons Poor odds $11k 21 devs
  20. Base Building + Military Poor odds $9.0k 92 devs
  21. Base Building + Cats Poor odds $8.4k 15 devs
  22. Base Building + Capitalism Poor odds $7.8k 99 devs
  23. Base Building + Farming Poor odds $7.2k 34 devs
  24. Base Building + Western Poor odds $7.0k 13 devs
  25. Base Building + Medieval Poor odds $6.0k 234 devs
  26. Base Building + Nature Poor odds $5.8k 123 devs
  27. Base Building + Horror Poor odds $5.5k 64 devs
  28. Base Building + Fantasy Poor odds $5.1k 267 devs
  29. Base Building + War Poor odds $4.8k 114 devs
  30. Base Building + Magic Poor odds $4.8k 82 devs
  31. Base Building + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $4.8k 72 devs
  32. Base Building + Space Poor odds $4.7k 178 devs
  33. Base Building + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.3k 262 devs
  34. Base Building + Zombies Poor odds $3.6k 106 devs
  35. Base Building + Mystery Poor odds $3.5k 25 devs
  36. Base Building + Cyberpunk Poor odds $3.0k 22 devs
  37. Base Building + Futuristic Poor odds $2.4k 115 devs
  38. Base Building + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 26 devs
  39. Base Building + Aliens Poor odds $1.7k 65 devs
  40. Base Building + Robots Poor odds $1.6k 45 devs
  41. Base Building + Steampunk Poor odds $1.5k 15 devs
  42. Base Building + Mechs Poor odds $989 15 devs
  43. Base Building + Psychological Horror Dead $1.4k 7 devs
  44. Base Building + World War II Dead $1.0k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Valheim 2026 · $418M Palworld 2026 · $371M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M Subnautica 2018 · $307M Satisfactory 2024 · $282M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.