Games › Base Building › Base Building + Sci-fi
Should I ship a Sci-fi Base Building game?
Base Building + Sci-fi
Of 262 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 669 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4407 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 669 games are announced against 167 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.3k (exactly $4,313) |
| Top 25% | $71k (exactly $70,861) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 262 |
| Released games | 696 |
| Announced | 669 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Sci-fi
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 331,789 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 108 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 669 games are announced against 167 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Satisfactory 2024 · $282M 
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
RimWorld 2018 · $219M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Satisfactory | older | $39.99 | 234,993 97% | 7.0M | $282M (exactly $281,921,102) | Coffee Stain Studios |
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
 | ASTRONEER | older | $29.99 | 118,844 91% | 3.6M | $107M (exactly $106,923,947) | System Era Softworks |
 | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | Oxygen Not Included | older | $24.99 | 135,337 96% | 4.1M | $101M (exactly $101,462,149) | Klei Entertainment |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Starship Troopers: Extermination | $29.99 | 29,724 80% | 892k | $27M (exactly $26,742,683) | Offworld | |
 | Jurassic World Evolution 3 | $59.99 | 11,387 93% | 342k | $20M (exactly $20,493,184) | Frontier Developments | |
 | The Alters | $34.99 | 15,330 90% | 460k | $16M (exactly $16,091,901) | 11 bit studios | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | shapez 2 - Factory | $29.99 | 13,846 96% | 415k | $12M (exactly $12,457,246) | tobspr Games | |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition | $29.99 | 12,286 85% | 369k | $11M (exactly $11,053,714) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Space Haven | $24.99 | 10,267 85% | 308k | $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) | Bugbyte Ltd. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.