Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Base Building game?

Base Building + Farming

Of 34 developers who shipped a Farming Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×7085 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 47 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $18k → $3.6k → $3.3k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,376)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 55
Announced 47
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Crafting, Sandbox
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 40,447 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $4.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
Among Trees older $14.99 2,071 68% 62k $931k (exactly $931,329) FJRD Interactive
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
Elsewhere · EA $15.99 80 96% 2.4k $38k (exactly $38,376) Four White Cats
Russian Village Simulator 2 $15.99 61 70% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) VD Games, PropilGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.