Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Base Building game?

Base Building + Western

Only 13 developers shipped a Western Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bounty Star, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×190 the market median. Revenue is up 1255% on the market; 19 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1255% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.0k → $3.1k → $2.1k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,016)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,747)
Top 5% $119k (exactly $119,202)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 29
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1255% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Outlaws of the Old West · EA older $19.99 5,584 58% 168k $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) Virtual Basement LLC
SteamWorld Build older $24.99 1,884 83% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,435) The Station
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Above Snakes older $24.99 1,574 74% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,028) Square Glade Games
Depraved older $19.99 1,129 60% 34k $677k (exactly $677,061) Evil Bite
Desert Skies · EA older $19.99 423 56% 13k $254k (exactly $253,673) White_Rabbit_Games
Bounty Star $24.99 159 65% 4.8k $119k (exactly $119,202) DINOGOD
Western Rye · EA $21.99 104 53% 3.1k $69k (exactly $68,609) Nixalon Studios
Frontier Legends · EA $29.99 57 40% 1.7k $51k (exactly $51,283) Neojac Entertainment Inc.
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games
Union Of Rivals · EA $25.49 31 64% 930 $24k (exactly $23,706) 2Play
Fuel Station Simulator $6.99 55 60% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,534) QuantumPlay Studios
Arcane Wilds · EA $17.99 13 76% 390 $7.0k (exactly $7,016) Avancadia
Golden Rails: The heart of the state $6.99 15 93% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Alawar Casual
A Fistful Of Yankees $6.99 10 90% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Pulsar Creation
The First Mine $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Stefan Böttcher

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.