Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Dwarves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dwarf Base Building game?

Base Building + Dwarves

Only 12 developers shipped a Dwarf Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Orebound, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $5.3k. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 19 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Dwarves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $235k → $5.2k → $233k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Dwarves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $5.2k (exactly $5,240)
Median $13k (exactly $12,860)
Top 25% $334k (exactly $333,866)
Top 5% $708k (exactly $708,466)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 27
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dwarves
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Base Building
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 4,669 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.3k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $330k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.3k. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  3. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  4. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  6. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  9. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  10. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced
  12. + Job SimulatorPoor odds23 devs · median $53k · 19 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
SpellForce 3 Reforced older $39.99 5,784 76% 174k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,065) Grimlore Games
SpellForce 3 Soul Harvest older $19.99 1,992 84% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,194,602) Grimlore Games
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Regions Of Ruin older $11.99 1,972 84% 59k $709k (exactly $709,328) Gameclaw Studio
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Dwarf Eats Mountain $9.99 1,114 80% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Green Wizard
First Dwarf · EA older $24.99 314 76% 9.4k $235k (exactly $235,406) Star Drifters
Regions of Ruin: Runegate $19.99 389 84% 12k $233k (exactly $233,283) Gameclaw Studio
Hold The Mine · EA $14.99 338 83% 10k $152k (exactly $151,999) Hookaria Games
Dwarf Delve $12.99 33 33% 990 $13k (exactly $12,860) Gloom Box
Drill Rift $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Steam Veil Games
Into the Slimy Mines $12.99 26 100% 780 $10k (exactly $10,132) Ant Workshop Ltd
Dworf's Forbidden Gold $4.99 35 57% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Hadamant
Mine It Down $3.99 8 75% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Topito Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.