Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Base Building game?

Base Building + Futuristic

Of 115 developers who shipped a Futuristic Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 274 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×975 the market median. Revenue is up 330% on the market; 274 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 330% on the market, 274 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $1.6k → $1.0k → $832 → $2.4k → $1.5k → $10k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,424)
Top 5% $613k (exactly $612,505)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 300
Announced 274
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 51,747 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 274 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M The Alters 2025 · $16M shapez 2 - Factory 2026 · $12M Tempest Rising 2025 · $12M ELEX 2017 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
ELEX older $29.99 12,443 72% 373k $11M (exactly $11,194,967) Piranha Bytes
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $14.99 8,812 94% 264k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,756) Relic Entertainment
Supreme Commander 2 older $12.99 8,349 87% 250k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,605) Gas Powered Games
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Outworld Station $18.99 807 84% 24k $460k (exactly $459,748) Trickjump Games Ltd
Stars Reach · EA $29.99 322 52% 9.7k $290k (exactly $289,703) Playable Worlds, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.