Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Base Building game?

Base Building + Modern

Of 24 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $29k, ×46 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×25841 the market median. Revenue is up 165% on the market; 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 45.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 165% on the market, 50 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $67k → $358 → $1.1k → $58k → $51k → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Median $29k (exactly $28,786)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $103,116)
Top 5% $16M (exactly $16,228,342)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 56
Announced 50
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 165% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Immersive Sim
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 88,643 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $29k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
InfraSpace older $24.99 1,638 82% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,009) Dionic Software
Power to the People older $14.99 472 79% 14k $212k (exactly $212,258) Rhombico Games
Hometopia $8.99 777 57% 23k $210k (exactly $209,557) Hometopia Inc.
Mad Smartphone Tycoon older $11.99 577 71% 17k $208k (exactly $207,547) Miradil
Train Station Simulator · EA older $16.99 229 55% 6.9k $117k (exactly $116,721) Appliks Apps Studios
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
Ship of Heroes $29.99 91 27% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Heroic Games Corporation
Terminal One $19.99 96 66% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Terminal Reality
Beauty Store Simulator $9.99 176 86% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) NovaraGames
Miami Hotel Simulator $11.99 141 73% 4.2k $51k (exactly $50,718) Last Howl

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.