Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Mars

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mars Base Building game?

Base Building + Mars

Only 15 developers shipped a Mars Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Surviving Mars: Relaunched, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $58k, ×93 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4207 the market median. Revenue is up 4125% on the market; 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 93.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 4125% on the market, 28 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Mars
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $226k → $9.7k → $2.5k → $58k → $515k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Mars: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,518)
Median $58k (exactly $58,477)
Top 25% $816k (exactly $815,617)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 46
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4125% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mars
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building
Price point
$15.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 11,695 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $58k, 1 in 4 over $810k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced
  12. + Job SimulatorPoor odds23 devs · median $53k · 19 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Per Aspera 2020 · $3.7M Terraforming Mars 2018 · $3.1M Surviving Mars: Relaunched 2025 · $2.6M Occupy Mars: The Game 2026 · $2.4M Plan B: Terraform 2025 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
MarZ: Tactical Base Defense older $21.99 808 77% 24k $533k (exactly $533,038) Giant Grey
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.