Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Base Building game?

Base Building + Space

Of 178 developers who shipped a Space Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 387 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2872 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 387 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 387 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 178
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $87k → $16k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $6.2k → $5.2k → $26k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 178
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,668)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,917)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778)
Developers, 2 yr 178
Released games 443
Announced 387
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 76,702 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 387 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ASTRONEER 2019 · $107M Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M Space Engineers 2019 · $60M ICARUS 2021 · $59M Dyson Sphere Program 2021 · EA · $50M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ASTRONEER older $29.99 118,844 91% 3.6M $107M (exactly $106,923,947) System Era Softworks
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Space Engineers older $19.99 100,533 89% 3.0M $60M (exactly $60,289,640) Keen Software House
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Dyson Sphere Program · EA older $19.99 83,523 97% 2.5M $50M (exactly $50,088,743) Youthcat Studio
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Breathedge older $24.99 14,697 82% 441k $11M (exactly $11,018,341) RedRuins Softworks
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
Cubic Odyssey $24.99 2,406 74% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) Atypical Games
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.