Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Cats

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cat Base Building game?

Base Building + Cats

Only 15 developers shipped a Cat Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Learning Factory, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×8.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×279 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 41 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 41 announced, ×8.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Cats
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $45k → $8.4k → $21k → $959 → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Cats: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,101)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $175,383)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 33
Announced 41
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cats
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,252 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.6k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.6k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MewnBase older $9.99 1,331 92% 40k $399k (exactly $398,901) Cairn4
Everdell older $19.99 577 90% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) Dire Wolf
Learning Factory $14.99 390 84% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) Luden.io
Pets Hotel older $17.99 313 79% 9.4k $169k (exactly $168,926) Games Incubator
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games
铁道物语:陆王(Railway Saga:Land King) · EA older $9.99 394 78% 12k $118k (exactly $118,082) 風林火山工作室, 東木酋長
Catizens $17.77 214 81% 6.4k $114k (exactly $114,083) badopticsgames
Space Cats Tactics older $14.99 100 74% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) Mitzi Games, Alex Nicola
Kill A Million Rats $10.99 64 89% 1.9k $21k (exactly $21,101) Nerdook Productions
PurrPlate $9.99 64 68% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) LeankomGames
Mistpaw Ravine $15.99 36 94% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,269) Jon Nielsen
Sushi Cat - Tower Defense $9.99 51 84% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) OverPowered Team
Shop Simulator: Pet Shop $9.99 28 82% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Three River Games (3RG)
Hot Springs | 温泉 (Onsen) $3.99 51 74% 1.5k $6.1k (exactly $6,105) Peach Party
Cats go! : Tactical Defense Braw $4.99 39 97% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Minimum Studio Corp.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.