Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Base Building game?

Base Building + Nature

Of 123 developers who shipped a Nature Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 324 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×9.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5143 the market median. Revenue is up 315% on the market; 324 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 315% on the market, 324 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 123
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $7.1k → $3.8k → $980 → $2.5k → $7.8k → $15k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 123
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $91,730)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708)
Developers, 2 yr 123
Released games 273
Announced 324
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 315% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 102,300 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 324 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ICARUS 2021 · $59M Timberborn 2026 · $40M RoadCraft 2025 · $16M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Eco 2018 · EA · $10M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Expeditions: A MudRunner Game older $39.99 3,000 59% 90k $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) Saber Interactive
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Towers of Aghasba · EA $29.99 1,904 67% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Dreamlit inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.