Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Base Building game?

Base Building + Female Protagonist

Of 26 developers who shipped a Female-Led Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×49 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4093 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 82 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 49.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 82 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $5.1k → $8.1k → $750 → $1.7M → $31k → $3.6k (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $31k (exactly $31,029)
Top 25% $124k (exactly $124,159)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 86
Announced 82
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action-Adventure
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 49,057 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 3 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Evil Genius 2: World Domination older $39.99 11,255 69% 338k $14M (exactly $13,502,624) Rebellion
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
Severed Steel older $24.99 8,880 95% 266k $6.7M (exactly $6,657,336) Greylock Studio
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio
Crashlands older $14.99 5,551 90% 167k $2.5M (exactly $2,496,285) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Grey Goo older $29.99 2,602 69% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,341,019) Petroglyph, Six Foot
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment
Futanari★Coffee shop $13.99 357 91% 11k $150k (exactly $149,833) W77Games
Honeycomb: The World Beyond $29.99 138 65% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Frozen Way
Bounty Star $24.99 159 65% 4.8k $119k (exactly $119,202) DINOGOD
Latex & Tentacles $10.99 343 67% 10k $113k (exactly $113,087) ZXC, GODNASK
Lazy Witch's Factory · EA $15.99 204 91% 6.1k $98k (exactly $97,859) MELTCLOCK.Inc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.