Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Base Building game?

Base Building + Artificial Intelligence

Of 39 developers who shipped an AI Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4728 the market median. Revenue is up 305% on the market; 105 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 305% on the market, 105 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $131k → $2.6k → $537 → $4.6k → $9.4k → $25k → $5.8k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Median $11k (exactly $11,242)
Top 25% $114k (exactly $113,922)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 104
Announced 105
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 305% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Management, Simulation
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 22,780 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Jurassic World Evolution 3 2025 · $20M AI＊Shoujo/AI＊少女 2020 · $4.4M SpaceBourne 2 2025 · $3.0M Global Rescue 2026 · EA · $1.4M Screeps: World 2016 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
AI＊Shoujo/AI＊少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Global Rescue · EA $24.99 1,864 86% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,441) PeDePe GbR
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Ruinarch older $24.99 1,336 62% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Maccima Games LLC
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Sunset Motel $18.99 728 77% 22k $415k (exactly $414,742) Efkey Studios
Starmancer · EA older $14.99 891 61% 27k $401k (exactly $400,683) Ominux Games
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
Settlements Rising $18.99 416 80% 12k $237k (exactly $236,995) The Catalyst Crew
Industrial Annihilation · EA $29.99 206 27% 6.2k $185k (exactly $185,338) Galactic Annihilation
Learning Factory $14.99 390 84% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) Luden.io
Widget Inc. $4.99 761 84% 23k $114k (exactly $113,922) Leaping Turtle

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.