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Should I ship a Mystery Base Building game?
Base Building + Mystery
Of 25 developers who shipped a Mystery Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×7.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4407 the market median. Revenue is up 395% on the market; 92 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.7k (exactly $1,704) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,822) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 56 |
| Announced | 92 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 395% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Sandbox, Adventure
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 13,230 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M 
Techtonica 2024 · $2.8M 
The Spotter: Dig or Die 2026 · $698k 
Surviving the Abyss 2024 · $626k 
Starsand 2022 · $483k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Len's Island | $24.99 | 5,935 82% | 178k | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) | Flow Studio | |
| | Techtonica | $29.99 | 3,076 64% | 92k | $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) | Fire Hose Games | |
| | The Spotter: Dig or Die | $12.99 | 1,792 84% | 54k | $698k (exactly $698,342) | Puppyroar Games | |
| | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
| | Starsand | older | $19.99 | 806 69% | 24k | $483k (exactly $483,358) | Tunnel Vision Studio |
 | Island Notes | $12.99 | 884 82% | 27k | $344k (exactly $344,495) | KangBaoGame | |
 | Scrapnaut | older | $13.99 | 738 69% | 22k | $310k (exactly $309,739) | SpiffyBit |
 | DYSPLACED | · EA | $24.99 | 296 87% | 8.9k | $222k (exactly $221,911) | 10tons Ltd |
 | Penkura | · EA older | $13.99 | 188 89% | 5.6k | $79k (exactly $78,904) | LionsArt |
 | LAN Party Adventures | $14.99 | 93 89% | 2.8k | $42k (exactly $41,822) | LEAP Game Studios | |
 | The Legacy | $14.99 | 46 52% | 1.4k | $21k (exactly $20,686) | Second Reality | |
 | Tales from The Dancing Moon | $17.99 | 34 88% | 1.0k | $18k (exactly $18,350) | DjMonkey | |
 | The HELL | · EA | $9.99 | 30 73% | 900 | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) | METROPOLICE |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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