Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Agriculture

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Agriculture game?

Agriculture

Of 357 developers who shipped an Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 624 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1389 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 624 games are announced against 207 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 624 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 357
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $3.0k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $1.1k → $2.5k (still earning) → $597 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 357
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,292)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 357
Released games 1,017
Announced 624
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 112,818 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 180 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 624 games are announced against 207 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Agriculture

84 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Agriculture + Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 46 devs
  2. Agriculture + Roguelike Poor odds $1.7k 25 devs
  3. Agriculture + Inventory Management Poor odds $1.7k 33 devs
  4. Agriculture + Combat Poor odds $1.7k 26 devs
  5. Agriculture + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $1.5k 14 devs
  6. Agriculture + Card Game Poor odds $1.5k 13 devs
  7. Agriculture + Trading Poor odds $1.5k 21 devs
  8. Action-Adventure + Agriculture Poor odds $1.1k 23 devs
  9. Agriculture + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $1.1k 14 devs
  10. PvE + Agriculture Poor odds $897 27 devs
  11. Action + Agriculture Poor odds $750 54 devs
  12. Agriculture + Multiple Endings Poor odds $750 12 devs
  13. Tactical + Agriculture Poor odds $718 15 devs
  14. Agriculture + Visual Novel Poor odds $600 8 devs
  15. Agriculture + 2D Platformer Poor odds $479 23 devs
  16. Action RPG + Agriculture Poor odds $360 11 devs
  17. Agriculture + Dogs Poor odds $359 11 devs
  18. Agriculture + Puzzle Poor odds $270 24 devs
  19. Agriculture + Female Protagonist Dead $24k 10 devs
  20. Agriculture + Horses Dead $13k 8 devs
  21. PvP + Agriculture Dead $1.5k 9 devs
  22. Agriculture + Tabletop Dead $1.5k 8 devs
  23. Agriculture + Hidden Object Dead $896 9 devs
  24. FPS + Agriculture Dead $750 10 devs
  25. Driving + Agriculture Dead $718 7 devs
  26. Agriculture + Arcade Dead $449 26 devs
  27. Agriculture + Point & Click Dead $359 27 devs
  28. 3D Platformer + Agriculture Dead $359 18 devs
  29. Agriculture + Logic Dead $359 11 devs
  30. Real Time Tactics + Agriculture Dead $330 12 devs
  31. Agriculture + Tower Defense Dead $330 9 devs
  32. Agriculture + Platformer Dead $299 15 devs
  33. Shooter + Agriculture Dead $239 12 devs
  34. Agriculture + Score Attack Dead $239 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M Medieval Dynasty 2021 · $45M Farming Simulator 22 2021 · $42M Farming Simulator 19 2018 · $35M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 19 older $17.99 64,621 94% 1.9M $35M (exactly $34,875,954) GIANTS Software
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Graveyard Keeper older $19.99 39,547 86% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,716,336) Lazy Bear Games
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.