Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Horses

Only 8 developers shipped a Horse Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Ranch of Rivershine, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $13k against a market of $630. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 20.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1680% on the market, 8 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $13k → $7.0k
Outcomes for Agriculture + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Median $13k (exactly $13,041)
Top 25% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 31
Announced 8
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1680% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Agriculture
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 99,628 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $870k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Farm Together older $19.99 17,647 93% 529k $11M (exactly $10,582,906) Milkstone Studios
Rival Stars Horse Racing: Desktop Edition older $29.99 5,032 91% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) PikPok
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life older $39.99 1,199 78% 36k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) Marvelous Inc.
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Horse Tales: Emerald Valley Ranch older $29.99 874 62% 26k $786k (exactly $786,338) Aesir Interactive
My Horse: Bonded Spirits older $19.99 130 38% 3.9k $78k (exactly $77,961) Games Incubator
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks
Harvest Days: My Dream Farm older $14.99 153 65% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Family Devs
Animal Trainer Simulator $14.99 29 37% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
Horse Plinko $4.99 47 89% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) Crawley, Womp
Harve $2.99 17 76% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Lunar Studios
Farvival · EA $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Shiranamitei
food inc: Home of the Supply · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DreamDeveloper-Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.