Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Combat

Of 26 developers who shipped a Combat Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1146 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 58 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 58 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $1.8k → $4.0k → $1.5k → $31k → $539 → $2.7k (still earning) → $71k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,100)
Top 5% $720k (exactly $719,960)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 67
Announced 58
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Base Building, Survival
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Kitaria Fables older $19.99 1,253 73% 38k $751k (exactly $751,424) Twin Hearts, Secret Level Studios
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Autonauts vs Piratebots older $19.99 334 80% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Denki
Picontier / ピコンティア older $24.99 125 74% 3.8k $94k (exactly $93,712) SKIPMORE, Kan.Kikuchi
Ecopunk · EA $22.99 133 81% 4.0k $92k (exactly $91,730) Zerone Games
Goblin Camp $19.99 118 76% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) Korppi Games Ltd
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
Crazy Islands $13.99 73 68% 2.2k $31k (exactly $30,638) Ge-Aivan
Touhou Farming ~ Minoriko's Homestead Harvest · EA $11.99 67 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $24,100) Studio Hexeye
The Colony 2044 · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Nexrage Studios
My Shelter $3.99 31 48% 930 $3.7k (exactly $3,711) Fantasy Tree
Apoikia · EA $24.99 4 50% 120 $3.0k (exactly $2,999) Charlie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.