Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Female Protagonist

Only 10 developers shipped a Female-Led Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $24k against a market of $630. 28 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 38.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 28 announced, ×7.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Agriculture + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $24k (exactly $24,100)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,124)
Top 5% $277k (exactly $276,767)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 49
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,615 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Farm Together older $19.99 17,647 93% 529k $11M (exactly $10,582,906) Milkstone Studios
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Summer in Mara older $19.99 1,464 75% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Chibig
The Stillness of the Wind older $12.99 1,360 77% 41k $530k (exactly $529,992) Memory of God, Lambic Studios
Latex Dungeon older $9.99 969 82% 29k $290k (exactly $290,409) GODNASK, ZXC
Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse $16.99 543 72% 16k $277k (exactly $276,767) Frontside 180
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
Garden Trills $14.99 87 96% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Yukim
Dream Life in the Country Side $14.99 87 83% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Moonlit Cafe
Touhou Farming ~ Minoriko's Homestead Harvest · EA $11.99 67 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $24,100) Studio Hexeye
Tiny Slime Farm $5.99 17 88% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Chocolate Soft
Sprite's Honor! $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Holographicquad
Harvest Yuuka $24.99 1 100% 30 $750 (exactly $750) ちゆうどう (Chiyuudou)
Book of Myko · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Charles V Fisher
Dairy Farm $1.99 4 100% 120 $239 (exactly $239) Fresh Milk Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.