Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Card Game

Only 13 developers shipped a Card Game Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tiny Pasture, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2019 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $152k → $749k → $235k → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $235k (exactly $234,989)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 28
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Card Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Farming Sim, Simulation, Creature Collector
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Rana Card $12.99 1,183 89% 35k $461k (exactly $461,015) VisionRana
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Terracards · EA older $8.99 733 84% 22k $198k (exactly $197,690) Pixel Purrfect
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Deck of Harvest · EA $11.99 73 67% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) GameFarmer, Pone Games
De'Vine: World of Shadows older $7.99 25 72% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Stapleton
Fortune & Famine $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Simeous Business, Mid Level Meeple
Relaxing Farm: Merge Tales $4.99 8 75% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) LeeT Game
Oceanic Rails · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Extrinc Studios
CardFarm · EA $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) axel_hollow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.