Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Trading

Of 21 developers who shipped a Trading Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1191 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 32 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $19k → $69k → $42k → $269 → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,485)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,143)
Top 5% $748k (exactly $747,826)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 59
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 6,040 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Thriving City: Song older $18.99 3,054 81% 92k $1.7M (exactly $1,739,864) White Star Studio
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Grand Ages: Medieval older $19.99 1,565 47% 47k $939k (exactly $938,530) Gaming Minds Studios
Russian Village Simulator older $29.99 889 84% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) VD Games, PropilGames
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Cozy Caravan $19.99 1,247 93% 37k $748k (exactly $747,826) 5 Lives Studios
Primitive Society Simulator · EA older $19.99 647 83% 19k $388k (exactly $388,006) YSH BigDove
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
Rise of Industry 2 $34.99 154 55% 4.6k $162k (exactly $161,654) SomaSim
Tiny Garden $12.99 108 85% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Ao Norte
Russian Village Simulator 2 $15.99 61 70% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) VD Games, PropilGames
Farmer's Shop Simulator · EA $11.99 56 48% 1.7k $20k (exactly $20,143) SleepySealsGames
Grand Cru: The Wine Maker $14.99 37 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) hAi Corp
Sunset Sprout $9.99 25 96% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Fontty Games
Man Made · EA $19.99 8 37% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) Rule51
Medieval Life Simulator · EA $9.99 11 36% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Single Soul Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.