Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Roguelike

Of 25 developers who shipped a Roguelike Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×441 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 29 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.0k → $6.5k → $28k → $150 → $4.1k (still earning) → $209 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,737)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,501)
Top 5% $277k (exactly $276,767)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 52
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Farming Sim, Simulation, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,378 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse $16.99 543 72% 16k $277k (exactly $276,767) Frontside 180
Terracards · EA older $8.99 733 84% 22k $198k (exactly $197,690) Pixel Purrfect
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Garlant: My Story older $10.99 234 84% 7.0k $77k (exactly $77,150) Flt Studio
Grimoire Groves $19.99 47 82% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) Stardust
Deck of Harvest · EA $11.99 73 67% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) GameFarmer, Pone Games
Moondrop older $14.99 30 86% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Moonroof Studios
The Colony 2044 · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Nexrage Studios
Ooze Keeper · EA $6.99 31 87% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) ZlitzGames
Trees Inc $4.99 43 83% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Mobmonks
Chickenauts · EA $5.99 23 60% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) SneakyBox, Kautki Cave
Wrangle Ranch $5.99 21 95% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) BenBonk, XraiDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.