Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Puzzle

Of 24 developers who shipped a Puzzle Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 54 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 54 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.4k → $718 → $2.8k → $416 → $359 → $120 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,437)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 110
Announced 54
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Colorful, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 686 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Urbek City Builder older $18.99 1,830 89% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,551) Fridus
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
The Signal State older $19.99 649 86% 19k $389k (exactly $389,205) Reckoner Industries
Horticular: Build a Garden, Attract Wildlife older $19.99 391 88% 12k $234k (exactly $234,483) inDirection Games
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Terra Firma 2 · EA $19.99 200 92% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) Working as Intended
Cascadia $14.99 210 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Dire Wolf
The Last Alchemist older $19.99 151 76% 4.5k $91k (exactly $90,555) Vile Monarch
Tiny Garden $12.99 108 85% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Ao Norte
Garden Trills $14.99 87 96% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Yukim
Skystead Ranch $24.99 28 71% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) ToastieLabs
Eastern Block Summer $7.99 15 100% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Space Lemon Games, Francis Bean
Combine 2 Pumpkins $4.99 19 100% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) 2Z
Paws & Potions $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Revolto Software
Hentai Sally $0.99 14 92% 420 $416 (exactly $416) Cyber Keks
Book of Myko · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Charles V Fisher

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.