Do I ship it?

Games › Agriculture › Agriculture + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Arcade

Of 26 developers who shipped an Arcade Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $896 → $1.2k → $1.1k → $359 → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $45 (exactly $45)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 5% $30k (exactly $29,985)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 81
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Incremental
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 575 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Best Forklift Operator 2022 · $134k Llamasoft: The Jeff Minter Story 2024 · $75k Chop Chains 2026 · $46k Supercow 2022 · $44k Hole io 2024 · $32k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Best Forklift Operator older $19.99 224 75% 6.7k $134k (exactly $134,333) Simmersiv
Llamasoft: The Jeff Minter Story older $29.99 83 87% 2.5k $75k (exactly $74,675) Digital Eclipse
Chop Chains $5.99 257 77% 7.7k $46k (exactly $46,183) Blasted Games
Supercow older $7.99 183 97% 5.5k $44k (exactly $43,865) Nevosoft
Hole io older $4.99 217 59% 6.5k $32k (exactly $32,485) VOODOO
Town of Zoz $19.99 50 70% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Studio Pixanoh
Manic Mechanics older $24.99 39 66% 1.2k $29k (exactly $29,238) 4J Studios
Guardener older $4.99 145 83% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,706) Sokpop Collective
DIG VR $19.99 26 92% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Just Add Water
Mushroom Clicker $4.99 69 94% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Wizard Shrimp Games
Horse Plinko $4.99 47 89% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) Crawley, Womp
Trees Inc $4.99 43 83% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Mobmonks
Chickenauts · EA $5.99 23 60% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) SneakyBox, Kautki Cave
Wrangle Ranch $5.99 21 95% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) BenBonk, XraiDev
Breakout Season $4.99 19 84% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Kakaos Collective
Storm Burst: Tornado Alley $3.99 20 65% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) Breaking Dimensions, Polygon Dust Enter… (Breaking Dimensions, Polygon Dust Entertainment Ltd.)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.