Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Agriculture Turn-Based Strategy?

Agriculture + Turn-Based Strategy

Only 14 developers shipped an Agriculture Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cropdeck, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×267 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $152k → $839 → $2.5k → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $330 (exactly $330)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,501)
Top 5% $168k (exactly $167,571)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 33
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 566 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EARTHLOCK older $29.99 381 76% 11k $343k (exactly $342,786) Snowcastle Games
Latex Dungeon older $9.99 969 82% 29k $290k (exactly $290,409) GODNASK, ZXC
Terracards · EA older $8.99 733 84% 22k $198k (exactly $197,690) Pixel Purrfect
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Citizens: Far Lands older $9.99 94 73% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) RedKar Devs
Grand Cru: The Wine Maker $14.99 37 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) hAi Corp
太平洋之嵐6 ~ 史上最大的激戰諾曼第攻防戰! Pacific Storm 6 - Battle for Normandy older $24.99 18 27% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) SystemSoft Alpha Cooperation
Dynasty Game 2 $7.99 29 65% 870 $7.0k (exactly $6,951) Yocone
Ooze Keeper · EA $6.99 31 87% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) ZlitzGames
Tree Kingdoms $5.99 14 100% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Biscuit Factory Games
Agrocracy $10.99 5 80% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) Pluvio Studio
Fortune & Famine $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Simeous Business, Mid Level Meeple
Leaf Town $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) SpringLeaf
Bloomon $1.99 10 50% 300 $597 (exactly $597) 17 Pages
Doll Hero Thirty-Six $10.99 1 100% 30 $330 (exactly $330) 文山工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.