Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Visual Novel

Only 8 developers shipped a Visual Novel Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Town of Zoz, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $29k, ×48 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $2.2k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,012)
Top 5% $30k (exactly $29,985)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 32
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Visual Novel
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,735 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Summer in Mara older $19.99 1,464 75% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Chibig
Latex Dungeon older $9.99 969 82% 29k $290k (exactly $290,409) GODNASK, ZXC
Dong-Jin Rice-hime(東津萌米) older $19.99 352 90% 11k $211k (exactly $211,094) STORIA, Narrator, SimonCreative
Wild Season older $16.99 179 24% 5.4k $91k (exactly $91,236) Quickfire Games
Twins of the Pasture older $7.99 278 74% 8.3k $67k (exactly $66,637) Dieselmine
Deiland: Pocket Planet older $14.99 132 68% 4.0k $59k (exactly $59,360) Chibig
Ankora: Lost Days older $14.99 131 76% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Chibig
My Slow Life with the Princess Knight and Her Devoted Handmaiden older $14.99 77 92% 2.3k $35k (exactly $34,627) Waffle
Town of Zoz $19.99 50 70% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Studio Pixanoh
Garage Sale older $6.99 103 98% 3.1k $22k (exactly $21,599) Bug Burrow
Baskin All-In: The Family · EA $8.99 26 65% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) TheSugarRay
双雄风流传(Romantic Emperor) $2.18 53 86% 1.6k $3.5k (exactly $3,466) Turtle game
The Shepherd: Black Sheep $19.99 1 0% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Bandaloop Games GmbH
Get Out Of The Woods · EA $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) NarwhalStudio
Gnomestead $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GORT Industries
The Ultra Realistic Accurate Farmer Simulator $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) CGCFSS
MILKY COWGIRLSVERSE $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SUCCUBUS ZONE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.