Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 14 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mamon King, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×374 the market median. Revenue is up 11700% on the market; 42 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 11700% on the market, 42 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $1.5k → $2.0k → $599 → $7.0k → $53k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,439)
Top 5% $235k (exactly $234,989)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 41
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 11700% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Farming Sim, Life Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,166 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Song Of The Prairie older $19.99 1,295 77% 39k $777k (exactly $776,611) The Droplet Studio
Spirit of the Island older $14.99 1,191 69% 36k $536k (exactly $535,593) 1M Bits Horde
Slow living with Princess older $19.99 580 87% 17k $348k (exactly $347,826) KADOKAWA, TSUKURITE.
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
Harvest Moon: One World older $49.99 117 59% 3.5k $175k (exactly $175,465) Natsume Inc., Appci
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft
Pawsome Resort · EA $11.99 147 83% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) Pixel Puffs
Farmtale · EA older $4.99 245 64% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,676) Titanforged Entertainment
Eggstreme Farming $6.99 169 73% 5.1k $35k (exactly $35,439) Sagitta Studios
Baskin All-In: The Family · EA $8.99 26 65% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) TheSugarRay
Pickle Simulator $1.99 20 90% 600 $1.2k (exactly $1,194) Belfrost Studios
SurvivalWorld · EA $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Robert De Leon
Foragery $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Dev Kid Games
Get Out Of The Woods · EA $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) NarwhalStudio
Enclaved $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Digital Platforms Co.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.