Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania?

Metroidvania

Of 524 developers who shipped a Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,566 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $930; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×1079 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,566 games are announced against 291 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,566 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 524
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $2.1k → $8.5k → $4.5k → $6.7k → $4.3k → $4.8k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 524
Bottom 30% $922 (exactly $922)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,485)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,715)
Developers, 2 yr 524
Released games 1,881
Announced 1,566
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 438,818 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $930, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $930. 8 in 10 of the 280 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,566 games are announced against 291 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Metroidvania

30 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Metroidvania + Lovecraftian Poor odds $28k 8 devs
  2. Metroidvania + Vampires Poor odds $14k 16 devs
  3. Metroidvania + Female Protagonist Poor odds $12k 106 devs
  4. Metroidvania + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $12k 15 devs
  5. Metroidvania + Psychological Horror Poor odds $12k 19 devs
  6. Metroidvania + Cats Poor odds $11k 12 devs
  7. Metroidvania + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $9.6k 106 devs
  8. Metroidvania + Cyberpunk Poor odds $9.4k 26 devs
  9. Metroidvania + Psychological Poor odds $9.0k 12 devs
  10. Metroidvania + Mythology Poor odds $7.0k 19 devs
  11. Metroidvania + Demons Poor odds $6.4k 32 devs
  12. Metroidvania + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $6.4k 29 devs
  13. Metroidvania + Gothic Poor odds $6.4k 17 devs
  14. Metroidvania + Supernatural Poor odds $5.5k 10 devs
  15. Metroidvania + Space Poor odds $4.9k 30 devs
  16. Metroidvania + Horror Poor odds $4.9k 43 devs
  17. Metroidvania + Mystery Poor odds $4.6k 60 devs
  18. Metroidvania + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.5k 82 devs
  19. Metroidvania + Fantasy Poor odds $4.3k 165 devs
  20. Metroidvania + Magic Poor odds $4.0k 75 devs
  21. Metroidvania + Robots Poor odds $3.6k 26 devs
  22. Metroidvania + Dystopian Poor odds $3.6k 25 devs
  23. Metroidvania + Underground Poor odds $3.0k 14 devs
  24. Metroidvania + Medieval Poor odds $2.9k 49 devs
  25. Metroidvania + Futuristic Poor odds $2.2k 40 devs
  26. Metroidvania + Aliens Poor odds $2.1k 23 devs
  27. Metroidvania + Nature Poor odds $1.5k 29 devs
  28. Metroidvania + Zombies Poor odds $1.3k 12 devs
  29. Metroidvania + Ninja Dead $611k 6 devs
  30. Metroidvania + Dragons Dead $1.8k 4 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hollow Knight: Silksong 2025 · $232M Hollow Knight 2017 · $226M STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M Ori and the Will of the Wisps 2020 · $122M Dead Cells 2018 · $117M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance $29.99 3,564 83% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) SEGA, Lizardcube
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound $24.99 2,500 92% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250) The Game Kitchen
Constance $19.99 2,822 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) Blue Backpack

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.