Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + LGBTQ+

Only 15 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Possessor(s), made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×25 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×453 the market median. Revenue is up 295% on the market; 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 295% on the market, 33 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $281k → $61k → $7.2k → $12k → $37k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $5.6k (exactly $5,605)
Median $12k (exactly $11,867)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,775)
Top 5% $215k (exactly $215,185)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 45
Announced 33
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 295% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.7k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.7k. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown older $29.99 6,754 84% 203k $6.1M (exactly $6,076,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
Chicory: A Colorful Tale older $19.99 3,407 97% 102k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,178) Wishes Ultd., Greg Lobanov, Alexis Dean… (Wishes Ultd., Greg Lobanov, Alexis Dean-Jones, Lena Raine, Madeline Berger, A Shell in the Pit)
Timespinner older $19.99 2,823 86% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,953) Lunar Ray Games
Indivisible older $19.99 2,458 72% 74k $1.5M (exactly $1,474,063) Lab Zero Games
UNSIGHTED older $19.99 1,863 93% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,117,241) Studio Pixel Punk
Cookie Cutter: Overkill Edition older $19.99 894 77% 27k $536k (exactly $536,132) Subcult Joint LTD
Paradiso Guardian older $29.99 312 91% 9.4k $281k (exactly $280,706) Team Lv.266
Possessor(s) $9.99 718 75% 22k $215k (exactly $215,185) Heart Machine
Romancelvania older $24.99 253 75% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) The Deep End Games
Oh So Hero! $9.99 255 94% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) Full Frontal Frog
Stardust Demon $19.99 77 83% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) resnijars
Dungeon Gals $14.99 84 100% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) DoricDream
Key Fairy $19.99 62 100% 1.9k $37k (exactly $37,181) Owl Machine
Magical Blush $14.99 58 94% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Alkacer Game Studio
Sunfluffs · EA $11.99 56 100% 1.7k $20k (exactly $20,143) Nuclear Strawberry
Rainbow Cloud: A GAY RPG $8.99 44 70% 1.3k $12k (exactly $11,867) Berutta Studio
Virtue's Heaven $19.99 12 100% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) MOKKOGRAD
CYCLE $12.00 17 100% 510 $6.1k (exactly $6,120) DVTZR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.