Do I ship it?

Games › Metroidvania › Metroidvania + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Nature

Of 29 developers who shipped a Nature Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 105 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 105 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $15k → $2.2k → $836 → $4.9k → $2.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $389 (exactly $389)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 74
Announced 105
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 8,456 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Eastshade 2019 · $3.9M The Gunk 2022 · $3.6M Öoo 2025 · $2.0M Ogu and the Secret Forest 2024 · $1.4M Islets 2022 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eastshade older $24.99 5,183 89% 155k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,695) Eastshade Studios
The Gunk older $24.99 4,744 86% 142k $3.6M (exactly $3,556,577) Image & Form Games
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
Ogu and the Secret Forest older $24.99 1,817 94% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,362,205) Moonlab Studio, Sinkhole Studio
Islets older $19.99 1,831 95% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,051) Kyle Thompson
Seasons after Fall older $9.99 2,376 80% 71k $712k (exactly $712,087) Swing Swing Submarine
Primal Planet $19.99 629 88% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Seethingswarm
Frogmonster older $19.99 585 96% 18k $351k (exactly $350,824) Ben Jungwirth
Waking Mars older $9.99 651 89% 20k $195k (exactly $195,105) Tiger Style
Strange Seed $14.99 431 86% 13k $194k (exactly $193,821) Chronicle Games Ltd
EMUUROM $12.49 302 90% 9.1k $113k (exactly $113,159) borbware
Dewdrop Dynasty $11.99 233 78% 7.0k $84k (exactly $83,810) Goodgis
Clockwork Ambrosia $19.99 133 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Realmsoft
Sunfluffs · EA $11.99 56 100% 1.7k $20k (exactly $20,143) Nuclear Strawberry
Sealed Bite: Extended $9.99 32 87% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Ruben S. Luis
Only Sliding $4.99 47 91% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) Portponky
Journey of the Garden Rose $11.99 18 77% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Renegade Sector Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.