Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Gothic

Only 17 developers shipped a Gothic Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Verho - Curse of Faces, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1539 the market median. Revenue is up 1160% on the market; 71 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1160% on the market, 71 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $331k → $4.1k → $29k → $449 → $22k → $8.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Median $6.4k (exactly $6,369)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,697)
Top 5% $731k (exactly $731,034)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 65
Announced 71
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1160% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Adventure, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,873 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.2k, median $6.4k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.2k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Have a Nice Death older $24.99 9,729 85% 292k $7.3M (exactly $7,293,831) Magic Design Studios
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Ultimate Edition older $29.99 7,998 80% 240k $7.2M (exactly $7,195,801) MercurySteam, Climax Studios
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 older $39.99 4,874 84% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,847,338) MercurySteam
The Last Faith older $27.99 4,661 83% 140k $3.9M (exactly $3,913,842) Kumi Souls Games
Valfaris older $24.99 1,782 86% 53k $1.3M (exactly $1,335,965) Steel Mantis
Castlevania Advance Collection older $19.99 2,149 91% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,755) KONAMI
Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon older $9.99 3,823 94% 115k $1.1M (exactly $1,145,753) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Verho - Curse of Faces $19.99 1,219 91% 37k $731k (exactly $731,034) Kasur Games
Gal Guardians: Servants of the Dark $29.99 560 65% 17k $504k (exactly $503,832) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Legacy of Kain: Ascendance $19.99 423 27% 13k $254k (exactly $253,673) Bit Bot Media
Tearscape $14.99 334 90% 10k $150k (exactly $150,200) NERDS TAKE OVER
Beholgar 2 $11.99 77 80% 2.3k $28k (exactly $27,697) Serkan Bakar
VELASTER · EA $10.99 83 87% 2.5k $27k (exactly $27,365) ODYSSEYER
Vampire's Best Friend $9.99 73 98% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) SinksAdventure
The Dark Heart of Balor $14.99 18 72% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Game Artists, LLC
DEAD DAYLIGHT $2.99 71 88% 2.1k $6.4k (exactly $6,369) KARMIU
Death Machine $9.99 15 46% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Philip Froelich

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.