Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Medieval

Of 49 developers who shipped a Medieval Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2921 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 134 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 134 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $987 → $7.6k → $1.5k → $6.4k → $1.2k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,365)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 141
Announced 134
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Side Scroller
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 25,628 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove older $39.99 14,211 95% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Yacht Club Games
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Tails of Iron older $24.99 13,116 87% 393k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) Odd Bug Studio
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Ultimate Edition older $29.99 7,998 80% 240k $7.2M (exactly $7,195,801) MercurySteam, Climax Studios
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
Dread Delusion older $19.99 4,886 90% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,930,134) Lovely Hellplace
Asterigos: Curse of the Stars older $34.99 2,550 78% 77k $2.7M (exactly $2,676,735) Acme Gamestudio
Phoenotopia: Awakening older $19.99 2,755 82% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,652,173) Cape Cosmic
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Dunjungle $14.99 692 96% 21k $311k (exactly $311,192) Bruno Bombardi
Chronicles of the Wolf $19.99 417 82% 13k $250k (exactly $250,075) Migami Games
Divinum $14.99 525 85% 16k $236k (exactly $236,092) Sigil Games
Volkolak: The Will of Gods $15.99 304 87% 9.1k $146k (exactly $145,829) Volk Team
Crimson Capes $14.99 165 90% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Poor Locke
GIGASWORD $14.99 108 75% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Studio Hybrid

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.