Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Post-apocalyptic

Of 29 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×10 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×319 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 136 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 136 announced, ×10 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $76k → $4.5k → $10k → $17k → $6.4k → $15k → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $6.4k (exactly $6,369)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $34,627)
Top 5% $200k (exactly $200,170)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 96
Announced 136
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, 2D Platformer
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Side Scroller, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,993 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $6.4k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×10 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
Darksiders III older $39.99 12,519 75% 376k $15M (exactly $15,019,044) Gunfire Games
Hyper Light Drifter older $19.99 15,548 93% 466k $9.3M (exactly $9,324,136) Heart Machine
Darksiders Warmastered Edition older $19.99 13,942 88% 418k $8.4M (exactly $8,361,017) KAIKO, Vigil Games
Dread Delusion older $19.99 4,886 90% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,930,134) Lovely Hellplace
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
HAAK older $17.99 3,149 89% 94k $1.7M (exactly $1,699,515) Blingame
The End Is Nigh older $14.99 3,291 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,479,963) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
UNSIGHTED older $19.99 1,863 93% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,117,241) Studio Pixel Punk
The Devil Within: Satgat $24.99 795 78% 24k $596k (exactly $596,012) Newcore Games
Shantae Advance: Risky Revolution $24.99 267 85% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) WayForward, Limited Run Games
INAYAH - Life after Gods $15.99 230 71% 6.9k $110k (exactly $110,331) Exogenesis Studios
Kentum $17.99 172 75% 5.2k $93k (exactly $92,828) Tlön Industries
Voltage High Society $19.99 144 92% 4.3k $86k (exactly $86,357) Platonic Partnership
Heavy Hearts $14.99 98 70% 2.9k $44k (exactly $44,071) Dammitbird
Rusty Rabbit $19.99 59 67% 1.8k $35k (exactly $35,382) NITRO PLUS
Last Vanguard $14.99 77 81% 2.3k $35k (exactly $34,627) Cool Tapir Studios
Alruna and the Necro-Industrialists $9.99 113 84% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,866) Neckbolt
Gravity Castle $14.99 38 89% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Studio LEF

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.