Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Space

Of 30 developers who shipped a Space Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×7.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×194 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 91 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 91 announced, ×7.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $1.3k → $72k → $45k → $3.0k → $5.4k → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,580)
Top 5% $122k (exactly $121,869)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 110
Announced 91
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Platformer
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,979 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
The Gunk older $24.99 4,744 86% 142k $3.6M (exactly $3,556,577) Image & Form Games
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
The Swapper older $14.99 5,065 93% 152k $2.3M (exactly $2,277,730) Olli Harjola, Otto Hantula, Tom Jubert,… (Olli Harjola, Otto Hantula, Tom Jubert, Carlo Castellano)
Out There Somewhere older $9.99 6,160 92% 185k $1.8M (exactly $1,846,152) MiniBoss
VVVVVV older $4.99 6,657 96% 200k $997k (exactly $996,553) Terry Cavanagh
Headlander older $19.99 614 90% 18k $368k (exactly $368,216) Double Fine Productions
Environmental Station Alpha older $7.99 1,506 81% 45k $361k (exactly $360,988) Arvi Teikari, Roope Mäkinen
The Mobius Machine older $19.99 442 82% 13k $265k (exactly $265,067) Madruga Works
Xeodrifter older $9.99 738 75% 22k $221k (exactly $221,179) Atooi
Somber Echoes $14.99 271 81% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Rock Pocket Games, Lav Games
Space Adventure Cobra - The Awakening $24.99 119 77% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Magic Pockets
Goodboy Galaxy $24.99 110 95% 3.3k $82k (exactly $82,467) Goodboy Galaxy Ltd.
ROLLING STAR $11.99 216 96% 6.5k $78k (exactly $77,695) NUL2 STUDIO
Derelict Star $9.99 155 94% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) gate
Stardust Demon $19.99 77 83% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) resnijars
Adventure of Samsara $19.99 66 89% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Ilex Games
Quantum Void $11.99 69 95% 2.1k $25k (exactly $24,819) TacNours
Space Sprouts $10.99 51 96% 1.5k $17k (exactly $16,815) Schleuder Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.