Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Psychological Horror

Only 19 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, JUMP KING QUEST, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×24 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×1138 the market median. Revenue is up 330% on the market; 64 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 330% on the market, 64 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $3.3k → $14k → $47k → $1.4k → $86k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Median $12k (exactly $11,501)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $86,357)
Top 5% $541k (exactly $540,539)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 60
Announced 64
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Surreal, Difficult, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,723 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.2k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.2k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
The Swapper older $14.99 5,065 93% 152k $2.3M (exactly $2,277,730) Olli Harjola, Otto Hantula, Tom Jubert,… (Olli Harjola, Otto Hantula, Tom Jubert, Carlo Castellano)
Vigil: The Longest Night older $21.99 3,333 85% 100k $2.2M (exactly $2,198,780) Glass Heart Games
Chicory: A Colorful Tale older $19.99 3,407 97% 102k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,178) Wishes Ultd., Greg Lobanov, Alexis Dean… (Wishes Ultd., Greg Lobanov, Alexis Dean-Jones, Lena Raine, Madeline Berger, A Shell in the Pit)
LOST EPIC older $17.99 1,055 71% 32k $569k (exactly $569,384) One or Eight, Team EARTHWARS
JUMP KING QUEST $14.99 1,202 88% 36k $541k (exactly $540,539) Nexile
Neversong older $14.99 785 85% 24k $353k (exactly $353,014) Atmos Games, Serenity Forge
Metro Gravity $12.99 852 92% 26k $332k (exactly $332,024) mrkogamedev
Tower and Sword of Succubus older $12.99 818 85% 25k $319k (exactly $318,775) Libra Heart
Future Fragments older $19.99 450 74% 14k $270k (exactly $269,865) The Future Fragments Team
FISH · EA $9.99 583 94% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) dmcaguy
Lingo 2 $9.99 443 93% 13k $133k (exactly $132,767) Brenton Wildes
Voltage High Society $19.99 144 92% 4.3k $86k (exactly $86,357) Platonic Partnership
Babushka's Glitch Dungeon $5.99 259 98% 7.8k $47k (exactly $46,542) pets club 2
The Island of Doctor Morose $9.99 93 95% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Square Butterfly Interactive
SENARA: The Sacrament $17.99 51 74% 1.5k $28k (exactly $27,525) Influsion Inc.
Creatures Of War $14.99 32 75% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Chaos Entertainment
HOMESICKNESS $5.99 64 92% 1.9k $12k (exactly $11,501) jnity, celesware

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.