Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Mythology

Only 19 developers shipped a Mythological Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Voidwrought, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×10 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×894 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 73 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 73 announced, ×10 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $33k → $1.3k → $7.3k → $2.1k → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $91,754)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 54
Announced 73
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,321 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×10 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Asterigos: Curse of the Stars older $34.99 2,550 78% 77k $2.7M (exactly $2,676,735) Acme Gamestudio
Apotheon older $14.99 3,314 89% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,490,306) Alientrap
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
Tales of Kenzera™: ZAU older $19.99 898 82% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Surgent Studios
DragonLoop $8.99 567 91% 17k $153k (exactly $152,920) 沙因, 小阮
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Somber Echoes $14.99 271 81% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Rock Pocket Games, Lav Games
The Girl from Arkanya $19.99 153 92% 4.6k $92k (exactly $91,754) Arkanya Games
Emberbane $14.99 111 52% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) Hamlet Games
Obey the Insect God $19.99 23 100% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Chunkle Freaky's Movies Games, Charles… (Chunkle Freaky's Movies Games, Charles Davis)
The Pale Piper $14.99 28 92% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) FreeTimeDev
Oblitus mortis $4.99 49 93% 1.5k $7.3k (exactly $7,335) Oblitus mortis
Sisyphus Is a Bug $4.99 47 97% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) moraguma

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.