Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Magic

Of 75 developers who shipped a Magic Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 220 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×8.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×572 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 220 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 220 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 75
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $3.4k → $7.2k → $17k → $4.6k → $1.8k → $5.6k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 75
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,365)
Top 5% $272k (exactly $271,528)
Developers, 2 yr 75
Released games 208
Announced 220
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 6,143 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 220 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rabi-Ribi older $17.99 10,768 95% 323k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,490) CreSpirit, GemaYue
Eastern Exorcist older $17.99 6,099 84% 183k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,630) Wildfire Game(无锡野火数字科技有限公司)
TEVI older $29.99 3,580 88% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,220,926) CreSpirit, GemaYue, Ein Lee
Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight older $9.99 10,502 93% 315k $3.1M (exactly $3,147,449) Bombservice
Pseudoregalia older $5.99 16,978 96% 509k $3.1M (exactly $3,050,947) rittzler
Dread Delusion older $19.99 4,886 90% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,930,134) Lovely Hellplace
Asterigos: Curse of the Stars older $34.99 2,550 78% 77k $2.7M (exactly $2,676,735) Acme Gamestudio
FlipWitch - Forbidden Sex Hex older $14.99 5,549 94% 166k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,385) MomoGames, Critical Bliss
UnEpic older $12.99 5,384 90% 162k $2.1M (exactly $2,098,145) @unepic_fran
Castlevania Dominus Collection older $24.99 2,362 94% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,791) KONAMI
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
Verho - Curse of Faces $19.99 1,219 91% 37k $731k (exactly $731,034) Kasur Games
Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse $16.99 543 72% 16k $277k (exactly $276,767) Frontside 180
Shattered Divinities $9.99 906 94% 27k $272k (exactly $271,528) 星魂游戏
Shantae Advance: Risky Revolution $24.99 267 85% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) WayForward, Limited Run Games
Volkolak: The Will of Gods $15.99 304 87% 9.1k $146k (exactly $145,829) Volk Team
Elementallis $17.99 263 90% 7.9k $142k (exactly $141,941) AnKae Games
Lone Fungus: Melody of Spores $19.99 200 93% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) BASTI GAMES
Paper Animal Adventure · EA $14.99 139 95% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Cuddling Raccoons Studio
Ariana and the Elder Codex $29.99 69 65% 2.1k $62k (exactly $62,079) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, HYDE, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.