Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Vampires

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vampire Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Vampires

Only 16 developers shipped a Vampire Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Legacy of Kain: Ascendance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×404 the market median. Revenue is up 195% on the market; 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Vampires
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $19k → $46k → $19k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Vampires: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,794)
Median $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,365)
Top 5% $254k (exactly $253,673)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 41
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Vampires
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, 2D Platformer
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Side Scroller
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 1,242 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced
  12. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds106 devs · median $12k · 323 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Ultimate Edition older $29.99 7,998 80% 240k $7.2M (exactly $7,195,801) MercurySteam, Climax Studios
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 older $39.99 4,874 84% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,847,338) MercurySteam
The Last Faith older $27.99 4,661 83% 140k $3.9M (exactly $3,913,842) Kumi Souls Games
Castlevania Dominus Collection older $24.99 2,362 94% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,791) KONAMI
Castlevania Advance Collection older $19.99 2,149 91% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,755) KONAMI
Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon older $9.99 3,823 94% 115k $1.1M (exactly $1,145,753) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Castlevania Anniversary Collection older $19.99 1,798 80% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,078,261) KONAMI
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Mirror of Fate HD older $14.99 2,161 84% 65k $972k (exactly $971,802) MercurySteam
The Dishwasher: Vampire Smile older $9.99 1,776 95% 53k $532k (exactly $532,267) Ska Studios
Legacy of Kain: Ascendance $19.99 423 27% 13k $254k (exactly $253,673) Bit Bot Media
Chronicles of the Wolf $19.99 417 82% 13k $250k (exactly $250,075) Migami Games
Beyond the Ice Palace 2 $19.99 77 63% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) STORYBIRD Studio
VELASTER · EA $10.99 83 87% 2.5k $27k (exactly $27,365) ODYSSEYER
VonGarland Castle : Beyond Blood $14.99 42 57% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Ash Jackson
Janosik 2 $8.99 70 95% 2.1k $19k (exactly $18,879) Onix Games
PizzaBoy $9.99 53 94% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,884) Breadless
Vampire Hunter: Nightrise $14.99 31 93% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Over The Moon
Stone 4 Souls $9.99 32 78% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Adeilson S Vieira
Drealegy $10.00 14 64% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,200) ArcWillow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.