Do I ship it?

Games › Metroidvania › Metroidvania + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Ninja

Only 6 developers shipped a Ninja Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×23 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $610k against a market of $630. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 972.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 23 announced, ×23 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $6.1k → $4.3k
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $611k (exactly $610,693)
Top 25% $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 33
Announced 23
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 80% fewer developers than the period before.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Metroidvania
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 29,021 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $610k, 1 in 4 over $1.8M, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×23 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Messenger 2018 · $6.4M Mark of the Ninja: Remastered 2018 · $3.9M SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance 2025 · $3.2M NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound 2025 · $1.9M STRIDER™ / ストライダー飛竜® 2014 · $975k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Messenger older $19.99 10,711 92% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,423,387) Sabotage
Mark of the Ninja: Remastered older $19.99 6,584 95% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,948,425) Klei Entertainment
SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance $29.99 3,564 83% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) SEGA, Lizardcube
NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound $24.99 2,500 92% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250) The Game Kitchen
STRIDER™ / ストライダー飛竜® older $14.99 2,167 83% 65k $975k (exactly $974,500) Double Helix Games, Capcom
Cyber Shadow older $19.99 1,294 83% 39k $776k (exactly $776,012) Aarne "MekaSkull" Hunziker
BLADECHIMERA $14.99 1,358 88% 41k $611k (exactly $610,693) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
KUNAI older $16.99 442 76% 13k $225k (exactly $225,287) TurtleBlaze
~Azur Ring~virgin and slave's phylacteries older $9.99 242 66% 7.3k $73k (exactly $72,527) PinkPeachStudio
Meifumado older $14.99 159 50% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,502) Old Bit Studio
Ninja Brigade feat. Jonah Weingarten $12.99 11 90% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Impawsible Games
Mukuro no Rasen $8.99 8 100% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Matrix Corporation
Slashboy $1.99 14 92% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Punch Game Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.