Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Fantasy

Of 165 developers who shipped a Fantasy Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 547 more are announced, ×6.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×9.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×1079 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 547 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 547 announced, ×6.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 165
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $5.5k → $21k → $3.3k → $6.6k → $2.7k → $14k (still earning) → $3.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 165
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,287)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,181)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,715)
Developers, 2 yr 165
Released games 554
Announced 547
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action-Adventure, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 29,625 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 547 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove older $39.99 14,211 95% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Yacht Club Games
Blasphemous 2 older $29.99 16,808 91% 504k $15M (exactly $15,122,158) The Game Kitchen
Darksiders III older $39.99 12,519 75% 376k $15M (exactly $15,019,044) Gunfire Games
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
GRIME II $27.99 1,892 86% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,588,712) Clover Bite
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
Verho - Curse of Faces $19.99 1,219 91% 37k $731k (exactly $731,034) Kasur Games
AWAKEN - Astral Blade $19.99 1,121 82% 34k $672k (exactly $672,264) Dark Pigeon Games
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
Chrono Gear: Warden of Time $17.99 950 98% 29k $513k (exactly $512,715) Team Chrono Gear, GalaxyTrail
Succubus Successor: Delilah's Juicy Journey $14.99 883 90% 26k $397k (exactly $397,085) Ramen Cat Studio, 樹画祭

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.