Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Psychological

Only 12 developers shipped a Psychological Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Constance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×19 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×3563 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $9.0k → $6.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 27
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 82% positive over 3,062 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Antichamber older $19.99 13,656 95% 410k $8.2M (exactly $8,189,503) Alexander Bruce
Constance $19.99 2,822 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) Blue Backpack
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
Dreaming Sarah older $5.99 2,301 92% 69k $413k (exactly $413,490) Asteristic Game Studio, Anthony Septim
Fearmonium older $12.99 514 85% 15k $200k (exactly $200,306) Redblack Spade
INFERNIUM older $29.99 167 64% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Carlos Coronado
Zapling Bygone older $15.99 110 82% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) 9FingerGames
The Perfect Pencil $24.99 68 70% 2.0k $51k (exactly $50,980) Studio Cima
Dreamcutter older $14.99 57 64% 1.7k $26k (exactly $25,633) Ten Pennyfingers
Vampire Hunter: Nightrise $14.99 31 93% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Over The Moon
HOMESICKNESS $5.99 64 92% 1.9k $12k (exactly $11,501) jnity, celesware
Sophie: Starlight Whispers $12.99 29 89% 870 $11k (exactly $11,301) Youth Gaming
Particle Hearts $14.99 20 90% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Underwater Fire
Journey of the Garden Rose $11.99 18 77% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Renegade Sector Games
Just a Little Longer $7.99 7 71% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Scott Jund
Bloodright $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) OcO
Destroy the Wall $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Kingsnake Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.