Do I ship it?

Games › Farming Sim › Farming Sim + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Magic

Of 33 developers who shipped a Magic Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×26 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×11166 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 101 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 101 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $55k → $5.9k → $72k → $24k → $114k → $2.1k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $12k (exactly $12,163)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,014)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 81
Announced 101
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Life Sim, Simulation
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 17,743 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Disney Dreamlight Valley 2023 · $26M Sun Haven 2023 · $17M Little Witch in the Woods 2025 · $7.0M Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma 2025 · $5.3M Fae Farm 2023 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Fae Farm older $29.99 2,741 78% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,078) Phoenix Labs
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Moonlight Peaks $34.99 1,793 88% 54k $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) Little Chicken
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Wylde Flowers older $24.99 2,329 95% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) Studio Drydock Pty Ltd
Bandle Tale: A League of Legends Story older $24.99 1,243 77% 37k $932k (exactly $931,877) Lazy Bear Games
Ritual of Raven $14.99 325 88% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Spellgarden Games
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
Border Town $14.99 253 77% 7.6k $114k (exactly $113,774) GoHoGames
Farmagia $49.99 63 46% 1.9k $94k (exactly $94,481) Marvelous Inc.
Sloppy Fields · EA $9.79 201 95% 6.0k $59k (exactly $59,034) PixelPanzone
Alchemist Shop Simulator $11.99 111 75% 3.3k $40k (exactly $39,927) Kool2Play
Greenhearth Necromancer $10.99 88 96% 2.6k $29k (exactly $29,014) Silverstring Media Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.