Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Horses

Only 14 developers shipped a Horse Farming Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Ranch of Rivershine, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $70k, ×111 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2937 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 111.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $555k → $25k → $61k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Median $70k (exactly $69,704)
Top 25% $254k (exactly $254,273)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 38
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Farming Sim
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,423 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $14k, median $70k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds24 devs · median $31k · 36 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
Farm Together older $19.99 17,647 93% 529k $11M (exactly $10,582,906) Milkstone Studios
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life older $39.99 1,199 78% 36k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) Marvelous Inc.
Cattails | Become a Cat! older $14.99 2,315 95% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,041,056) Falcon Development
Harvest Moon: The Winds of Anthos older $49.99 370 73% 11k $555k (exactly $554,889) Appci Inc., Natsume Inc.
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
Viking Frontiers $19.99 537 51% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games
Gaucho and the Grassland $19.99 410 96% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Epopeia Games
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks
Tobiano · EA $24.99 81 79% 2.4k $61k (exactly $60,726) Ida Meyer
Rival Stars Horse Racing: VR Edition $19.99 41 85% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) PikPok
Horse Farm Simulator · EA $9.99 45 60% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Glow Egg Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.