Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Fantasy

Of 89 developers who shipped a Fantasy Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 221 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2651 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 221 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 221 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $40k → $12k → $15k → $22k → $16k → $2.4k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,097)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $42,697)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 206
Announced 221
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Life Sim
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 17,980 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 221 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
Cloud Meadow · EA older $19.99 5,134 85% 154k $3.1M (exactly $3,078,860) Team Nimbus
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Fae Farm older $29.99 2,741 78% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,078) Phoenix Labs
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road
Moonlight Peaks $34.99 1,793 88% 54k $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) Little Chicken
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Snacko $24.99 888 95% 27k $666k (exactly $665,734) Bluecurse Studios
Ark of Charon $24.99 389 75% 12k $292k (exactly $291,633) Angoo Inc., SUNSOFT
Mudborne: Frog Management Sim $7.99 993 96% 30k $238k (exactly $238,022) ellraiser, TNgineers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.