Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + LGBTQ+

Only 10 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Farming Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fields of Mistria, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150k, ×308 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $26k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×28202 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 307.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 16 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5M → $26k → $146k → $29k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $26k (exactly $25,633)
Median $146k (exactly $146,152)
Top 25% $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $13,395,985)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 34
Announced 16
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 38,221 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $26k, median $150k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $26k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  11. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds24 devs · median $31k · 36 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
Cloud Meadow · EA older $19.99 5,134 85% 154k $3.1M (exactly $3,078,860) Team Nimbus
Fae Farm older $29.99 2,741 78% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,078) Phoenix Labs
Wylde Flowers older $24.99 2,329 95% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) Studio Drydock Pty Ltd
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Cattails | Become a Cat! older $14.99 2,315 95% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,041,056) Falcon Development
Orange Season $14.99 364 59% 11k $164k (exactly $163,691) Innerfire Studios
Ritual of Raven $14.99 325 88% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Spellgarden Games
Greenhearth Necromancer $10.99 88 96% 2.6k $29k (exactly $29,014) Silverstring Media Inc.
Magical Bakery $14.99 57 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $25,633) SUPERLUMEN
The Abbess Garden $9.99 41 87% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) MD Studio
白影酒馆 Tavern Revisited $9.99 11 63% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Stray Dog Game Studio
Molest $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) 臻新

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.