Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Female Protagonist

Of 27 developers who shipped a Female-Led Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×26 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×4637 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 60 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 60 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $13k → $180k → $300 → $89k → $24k → $3.6k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,055)
Median $12k (exactly $12,288)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $88,689)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 83
Announced 60
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Building, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cozy, Story Rich, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 11,174 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.1k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.1k. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Farm Together older $19.99 17,647 93% 529k $11M (exactly $10,582,906) Milkstone Studios
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Cloud Meadow · EA older $19.99 5,134 85% 154k $3.1M (exactly $3,078,860) Team Nimbus
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Gaucho and the Grassland $19.99 410 96% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Epopeia Games
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
Everholm $19.99 297 75% 8.9k $178k (exactly $178,111) Chonky Loaf
Syn-Chorus 01: The New Life · EA $10.99 269 83% 8.1k $89k (exactly $88,689) PrisMaze棱镜迷阵
Poem of the Starherd $18.99 94 65% 2.8k $54k (exactly $53,552) commamion
Dream Life in the Country Side $14.99 87 83% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Moonlit Cafe
极乐不羡仙 $5.99 164 65% 4.9k $29k (exactly $29,471) 仙常居ソフト

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.