Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Farming

Of 93 developers who shipped a Farming Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×5070 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 119 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 119 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 93
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $50k → $13k → $15k → $12k → $11k → $7.5k → $8.0k (still earning) → $4.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 93
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Median $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,278)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432)
Developers, 2 yr 93
Released games 203
Announced 119
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 116,834 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $7.5k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
DORAEMON STORY OF SEASONS older $49.99 1,845 81% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,766,946) Marvelous Inc., Brownies Inc.
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Farming & Supermarket Simulator $11.99 835 79% 25k $300k (exactly $300,350) EY08 Games
Tiny Terraces · EA $6.99 938 92% 28k $197k (exactly $196,699) VuVuu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.